I am going to take this opportunity to give quick rundown of the Phillies lineup, and what I think their chances are in the NL East and beyond.
STARTING EIGHT (position in parentheses):
Marlon Byrd (CF): Rebounded from a very rough start to his rookie year to put together a fairly decent year. Even got some votes for rookie of the year. I really do not think that he will have a sophomore slump, I see him having a fairly decent year. He should hit around .300 with a few homeruns and RBIs, but his stats that I am really interested in are steals, walks, on base percentage (OBP) and runs. If he can keep those numbers high, that means that he is getting on base and scoring which what you want out of a leadoff man. He is also a decent fielder, nothing great but not a liability.
Placido Polanco (2B): Had a career year last year, I really do not expect him to repeat it but if he is in the ballpark then all should be good. He could hit second or seventh, depending on how much Jimmy Rollins sucks (more on that later). Wherever he hits I would like to see the same out of him that I expect from Byrd: get on base and let the big boys knock you in. Which brings me to...
Jim Thome (1B): He is an absolute monster. In his first year in a new league he leads the league in homeruns (47) and has a career high 131 RBIs. The sick thing is he is going to have a better year. I think that he is going to hit 50-60 HRs and knock in 150 RBIs. He really needs to cut back on the strikeouts, but that is what power hitters do. Should get MVP votes.
Pat Burrell (LF): I do not know what to say about him. I just hope that last year was a fluke, and I believe that it was. Everything that I heard out of spring training is that he is hitting much better, and most importantly no more bailouts on breaking pitches. The Phillies REALLY need him to produce if they are going to go anywhere this year, he might be the biggest piece to lineup this year.
Bobby Abreu (RF): I think that Bobby Abreu is quite possibly the stupidest player in the league. He does not know what he is doing in the field and he loves to steal at the absolute worst times. Sometimes it looks like he is just not paying attention out there. But he can flat out hit. He will be his regular self again. He will hit in the high .300s, might compete for highest batting average in the league. He will hit 20-40 HRs and get over 100 RBIs, it is really frustrating.
Mike Lieberthal (C): Had a very good year at the plate last year. Had the highest batting average of his career and was not seriously injured, which is an important and rare thing for a catcher. Handles a pitching staff pretty well, but had the worst percentage of thrown out baserunners in the league, which is mostly the pitchers fault. Hope that the number improves, plus I would like to see a few more homeruns and rbis out of him.
Jimmy Rollins (SS): I HATE Jimmy Rollins. I really think that they need to trade him right away. He is a better than average fielder but when he steps up to the plate I want to wring his little friggin' neck. Rollins has the same problem that Willie Mays Hayes had in "Major League". He thinks that he is a power hitter instead of a 5'8" shortstop. Bowa really needs to start making him do pushups everytime he hits a ball in the air. He needs to get the ball on the ground and use his speed. If he does that he could hit second and be a big help to the Phils, but if you see him hitting seventh or eighth, then he is fucking up again.
David Bell (3B): Another player who had a disastrous season last year. But his was due to injuries that forced him to miss about 80% of the season. If he can stay healthy and returns to his usual form he could hit 20 HRs and knock in 70-80 RBIs, which would be huge out of your eight hole. But if he is injured then that means that Polanco would play third and Chase Utley would play second and that is one thing that the Phils would like to avoid.
BENCH:
Their bench is pretty decent. A lot of veterans and guys that know their role and play it well. They are a little heavy with outfielders, which worries me if they get into a stretch of games like they had last year, 27 straight games. But they should be OK.
STARTING ROTATION:
Kevin Millwood: He is the closest thing that the Phillies have to a number 1 starter, but he isn't. He had a very good fist half last year but floundered in the second half, even going winless in September, which killed their playoff hopes. Supposedly came into this year in much better shape, but we will see. He should get around 15 wins.
Randy Wolf: I really like Randy Wolf, he is one of the top ten, maybe top five, lefthanders in the league. Sometimes goes through rough patches, but is usually good for about 15 wins as well.
Vicente Padilla: Has by far the best stuff on the team, he is just flat out filthy. His problem is that sometimes he gets hardheaded on the mound and loses focus. But after getting in a car accident that killed his best friend in his native Nicaragua and having a Nicaraguan newspaper accuse him of having a drinking problem he has come into spring training more focused than ever. I expect big things out of him, somewhere around 17-20 wins.
Brett Myers: He is a young guy, this is only his second full year as a starter. This is the year that he will become a stud. I do not have any hard evidence for this but I have a feeling. He will blossom into the ace that the organization has said and hoped that he would become. He will get 20 plus wins this year and get some Cy Young consideration.
Eric Milton: Another lefthander, which is really key to have two leftys in the starting rotation. He was hurt last year and only pitched in three games. But the year before that had a really good year getting, I believe, 15 wins. I expect about the same.
BULLPEN:
The vastly improved bullpen is one of the main reasons why many people are picking the Phils to win the NL East. Rheal Cormier had a fantastic year last year, and they picked up Tim Worrell and Roberto Hernandez, two veterans who will be good for the team. But the main reason why everybody is in a tizzy about the bullpen is...
Billy Wagner: Just plain stoopid (with two Os). According to the Elias Sports Bureau of the roughly 150 pitches thrown that were 100 m.p.h. or faster Billy Wagner had 100 of them. He had a little setback in the beginning of spring training but he is right back on track. He should get 40 plus saves this year.
NL East rundown:
Montreal Expos: They are a mess. Got rid of their best player and best pitcher. Nobody watches them. Play their games in three different countries (Canada, USA and Puerto Rico) and still nobody watches them. They will play somewhere else next year, but I think that they should be folded, along with the Brewers and Devil Rays.
Florida Marlins: Defending World Series champs, but that was a fluke. Again had a fire sale after winning but no where near what they did after winning it all in 1997. They have a very good starting rotation and a decent starting eight, including the best 1-2 hitters in the league. They will finish over .500 but not really compete.
Atlanta Braves: Again they lost a lot of talent. They lost Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, Vinny Castilla and Greg Maddux. But they also have the best manager and pitching coach in the league in Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone. Every year everybody writes about their demise and every year they win the division. I think that this year is finally the year that they do not win it, but who knows...
NY Mets: This is a bad team. They are also very young. I do not think that they have much pitching, starters or bullpen. And they have two catchers splitting time between catching and first base, and they both are struggling at first. I think that it was a mistake moving Jose Reyes to second to accommodate Kaz Matsui but we will see. Matsui will be the highlight of this team and could win rookie of the year, depending if voters want to vote for someone who has played in the Japanese league for years.
PREDICTION:
I think that the Phils will take the new Citizens Bank Park into the playoffs with the National League East title. Now once you get into the playoffs anything can happen, just look at the last three years champs (Marlins, Angels and Diamondbacks). I will be posting throughout the season on all things baseball, so let's PLAY BALL!!